According to the latest Jobs Report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US labor market “showed resilience in April, despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy.”
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 253,000 in April, surpassing expectations of economists, who had forecast growth of just 180,000.
Sectors with the most job gains included professional and business services (+43,000), health care (+40,000), leisure and hospitality (+31,000), and social assistance (+25,000).
“It is encouraging to see a strong jobs report amid recession concerns, instability in the banking sector and ongoing layoffs. We are hopeful the continued strength of the jobs market and signs of slowing inflation will ease market volatility in the coming months.”
Read more via Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, USA Today
NOTE: The ADP Employment Report and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobs Report utilize different data, and therefore provide differing reports. ADP's report includes only private sector data.
According to payroll processor ADP, hiring by private employers “unexpectedly” surged last month.
Private payrolls increased by 296,000 in April, up significantly from economists’ forecasts of 133,000 and well above the downwardly revised 142,000 in March.
Leisure and hospitality showed the fastest job growth in April, adding 154,000 jobs, followed by education and health services (69,000), and construction (53,000). The financial sector lost 28,000 jobs in April, and the manufacturing sector declined by 38,000 jobs.
Annual pay increased 6.7% year over year, a “deceleration from gains that had been consistently coming in above 7%,” according to ADP.
"Employers are hiring aggressively while holding pay gains in check as workers come off the sidelines."
Read more via CNBC
According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary from the US Labor Department, job openings fell in March to the “lowest level in nearly two years.”
US employers posted 9.6 million job openings in March, down from 10 million in February. The March figure is the lowest since April 2021.
Layoffs increased to 1.8 million, the most since December 2020.
Quits fell to 3.9 million, the lowest level since May 2021.
Experts say the JOLTS data indicates the “American job market is strong but losing momentum.”
“Overall the JOLTS report shows a historically tight labor market that is finally starting to slacken more quickly, something Fed officials have been seeking for several quarters."
Read more via Associated Press
“A few themes” have emerged from earnings calls that have taken place so far this quarter. Fears of a recession have prompted US companies to “divert to efficiency from growth mode.” Earnings calls this quarter aren't about “spending and expansion” – they are about cutting costs – and jobs.
Discussion of labor costs in earnings calls is down:
Discussion of labor costs in earnings calls has “plunged 80% from last quarter,” according to Bloomberg, which attributes the drop in use of terms like “personnel costs” and “spending on hiring” on the fact that “hiring has come to a halt and reflects the workforce reductions underway.”
Mentions of 'job cuts' are on the rise:
Mentions of job cuts by S&P 500 companies are overtaking mentions of labor shortages.
Experts say employers cutting jobs is “all about rightsizing to revenue growth,” and that cost cuts are ”out of necessity in an attempt to preserve operating margins." Labor cost cutting can be “incredibly effective” in allowing companies to meet or even exceed earnings expectations.
Tech isn't the only sector where “bloated” spending is seeing cuts.
“Corporate America is great on the front end in terms of staying ahead of the competition with robust hiring, but they’re also quick to counter that trend and lean down to support and protect the bottom line of their margins. We’re seeing a lot of that play out in the earnings calls we’ve seen in recent days.”
Read more via Bloomberg
According to a new report from the World Economic Forum, the global job market “will take a hit in the coming five years,” to the tune of 14 million jobs.
The World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report forecasts that “83 million jobs will be lost through 2027, while 69 million jobs will be created — a net decrease of 14 million.”
Roles forecast to decline the fastest include clerical and secretarial roles such as bank tellers, postal service clerks, and cashiers.
The fastest-growing roles include AI and machine learning specialists as well as business intelligence analysts and information security analysts, according to the report.
Most at risk in the years to come will be “workers with only basic education." Women also face potentially lower employment levels.
Despite the ominous predicted decline in jobs, the report pointed out “encouraging trends,” including the growth of green jobs.
Read more via Marketwatch, World Economic Forum
According to the Association of Professional Staffing Companies (APSCo), vacancies for human resources roles in the UK “dropped significantly in the first few months of 2023, suggesting that employers held back on recruitment as economic pressures continued.”
In March 2023, HR job vacancies were “down by more than a third (35.2%)," compared to March 2022. Similar decreases were also observed in January (36.2%), and February (35.4%).
Yet, according to Broadbean Technologies, the number of HR vacancies “has since grown slightly” since March 2023, suggesting that “business confidence is beginning to return after a turbulent few months.”
"As hiring begins to slow, we are experiencing an expected dip in demand for HR professionals."
Read more via Personnel Today
According to S&P Global, the US manufacturing sector showed “slight improvement in operating conditions during April.”
The seasonally adjusted US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 50.2 in April, up from 49.2 in March.
Demand remained “muted despite new orders returning to
expansion territory, as inflation concerns remained apparent.”
Output increased, and production rose at the fastest pace since May 2022.
Increased demand was centered on the domestic market, as new export orders contracted further.
Read more via S&P
According to Indeed's Hiring Lab, job postings are down year over year, but worker turnover is also down, a welcome sign for employers who have had challenges retaining workers.
Job postings on Indeed's platform are down 15% year over year.
However, job postings “remain 33% above their pre-pandemic base line," indicating a “still strong talent market.”
“Corporate” roles have declined quickly, with software development and finance jobs taking big hits. Job postings in software development have fallen 55.4% year over year. Postings for banking and finance roles are down 41%, and insurance job postings are down 18.5%, according to Indeed.
The quits rate in the professional and business services sector “has fallen to its pre-pandemic level as workers become more cautious about switching roles in an industry that has slowed over the past year.”
“The trend in layoffs is nearly as flat and as low as it has ever been, even below its pre-pandemic baseline."
Read more via Indeed Hiring Lab
Plagued by ongoing staffing shortages, health care facilities are “rethinking and reorganizing the job of registered nurses.” In some cases, faciities are looking to hire non-medical staff. They are also looking at “creating shorter, gig-work shifts.”
Openings for health care jobs are growing: According to one estimate, “42% of the nursing workforce is at or near retirement" and the forecast is for "a shortage of 2.1 million nurses — or about a third of the total needed — by 2025.” Openings in the health care field (in particular for nurses) are increasing “more than twice as fast as the overall US job market.”
Hospitals are rethinking the “job of nursing itself”: Hospitals are experimenting with programs to “entice workers from other industries.” Facilities are trying to “free highly trained registered nurses from paperwork and other less-skilled tasks and offering the flexibility of shorter freelance shifts.”
Experts say the ‘Uberization’ of health care is necessary: According to industry experts, this ‘Uberization’ of health care is ”key to meeting the shortages that will plague the industry for years."
Flexibility is key to adding staff: Hospitals say it's clear that nurses want flexibilty. Some facilities are utilizing scheduling apps, which they say are helping to increase the percentage of jobs filled.
“Everyone realizes that we’re on the precipice of a major cliff. There’s no way that we’re going to be able to build a workforce that’s large enough to take care of the population. There is a national health-care workforce crisis, so we are eagerly exploring all options to increase the talent pipeline for clinical staff.”
Canada: The Canadian government has reached an agreement to end a strike by 35,000 revenue agency workers. The strike had “slowed important government services including the processing of annual tax returns.” (Reuters)
Norway: Oil workers in Norway have reached a deal on wages, avoiding a planned strike. Industry group Offshore Norway reports that the Lederne union as well as Industri Energi “both came to an agreement with companies.” (Reuters)
Switzerland: The number of agency workers in the Swiss temporary staffing sector decreased by 5% in March year over year. The number of working hours also fell 3.9% in the temporary staffing sector, and the number of assignments was down 4.2%. (SIA)
United Kingdom: Workers for the country's National Health Service will receive a pay raise after trade unions representing a majority of workers involved in a long-running dispute voted to accept a deal last week. The deal covers nurses, paramedics, midwives and other workers in England, and includes a "one-off payment equivalent to 2% of salaries in the 2022/23 financial year and a 5% pay rise for 2023/24.” (Reuters)
