Consumer prices rose faster than economists expected, driven mostly by energy costs.
Prices were up 3.7% from a year earlier, above August’s 3.4% and the 3.6% economists expected.
Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 2.6% from a year ago and 0.3% from August.
Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% in September and are up 34% over the past year.
Fed officials raised rates last month for the first time in three years, and most expect one more increase this year.
At this point we’re at dangerously elevated levels of inflation.”
Read more via The Wall Street Journal
The IMF says strong AI investment is offsetting the energy shock from the Middle East war, but it warns that downside risks are growing.
The IMF forecasts U.S. growth of 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027.
Just 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 countries in April.
Global consumer price inflation is forecast at 4.7% this year.
If AI productivity gains fail to materialize and investment drops sharply, U.S. GDP could fall by 0.8% directly.
The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits, so we need to move from just coping to rebuilding.”
Read more via Reuters
Burning Glass Institute chief economist Gad Levanon compared employment and output in finance, insurance, information, and professional and business services.
Employment in those sectors is down roughly 2% since the end of 2022.
Real output over the same period is up 16%.
Dante DeAntonio of Moody’s Analytics says the first thing to give is likely hiring of younger workers and new college grads.
Cory Stahle of Indeed Hiring Lab says productivity was climbing before ChatGPT, so AI is part of the story but not all of it.
A growing share of the work businesses used to get done by consultants, contractors, call centers and their own back-office staff is now delivered by software, cloud and IT firms, which produce far more per worker and add almost no staff.”
Read more via Business Insider
The Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity says the headline unemployment rate misses people stuck in part-time or very low-paying work.
Its measure stood at 24.9% in July, up four straight months but down from 25.2% in December.
It counts people who are unemployed and looking, working part-time involuntarily, or earning less than $26,000 a year before taxes.
The official unemployment rate was 4.1% in July.
EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said a rate in the 20% range “does not line up with anything we see in the U.S. economy.”
Read more via CBS News
The agency sent a final rule to the White House that would withdraw its guidance on how employers use arrest and conviction records in hiring.
The 2012 guidance told employers to weigh the seriousness of the offense, the time that has passed, and the nature of the job.
The move follows President Trump’s executive order last year directing agencies to reassess disparate impact liability, which covers policies that look neutral but fall harder on a protected group.
Attorneys at Littler say employers who apply a background policy more harshly to one protected class will still likely violate Title VII, the federal workplace anti-discrimination law.
Private plaintiffs can still bring disparate impact claims under federal law, even if the EEOC does not.
Read more via HR Dive
Policymakers at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok are shifting from whether AI will disrupt jobs to how to cushion the fallout.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said about 40% of jobs worldwide will eventually be “augmented, downgraded or eliminated.”
She put exposure at about 60% in advanced economies and 23% in low-income countries.
Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who co-chairs the World Bank’s Jobs Council, urged governments to make Covid-era style support for young workers a permanent policy tool.
World Bank President Ajay Banga is less pessimistic, saying “small AI” tools could create jobs and productivity gains in middle-income and lower-middle-income countries.
Love it, hate it, or fear it. It [AI] is here, and we are already seeing the first wave of impact.”
Read more via CNBC
Dallas Fed researchers analyzed millions of online job postings to measure AI’s effect on hiring.
Generative AI was responsible for an estimated 2.6% reduction in Texas job postings in 2025, up from 1.8% in 2024.
Texas firms more exposed to AI had cut their postings by 8% to 9% by early 2026.
Graduates of Texas public universities with more AI-exposed majors are 1.7 percentage points less likely to find work within a year, and earn 5% less when they do.
Computer science, computer engineering, and languages were among the most exposed majors, while nursing, education, and psychology were among the least.
We’re not talking about a job apocalypse, but it does represent a statistically significant slowdown in hiring.”
Read more via The Dallas Morning News
Canada: Employers cut 68,300 jobs in September, following 41,700 lost in August, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 6.5%. The participation rate fell to 68.4%, its lowest level outside the pandemic since December 1997, and the losses were concentrated among workers aged 15 to 24. (The Wall Street Journal)
China: The urban jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds who aren’t students was roughly 19% in August, compared with about 9% for the same age group in the U.S. Beijing has also warned employers not to cut jobs as they adopt AI, according to people familiar with the matter, after some of China’s biggest employers estimated AI could wipe out 30% or more of their roles. (The Wall Street Journal)
Czech Republic: Only 8% of employers surveyed plan to raise pay in the fourth quarter, the lowest share in two years of quarterly polling and down from 13% a year ago. Half still plan to hire, and a quarter say vacancies are easier to fill. (Expats.cz)
India: 74% of Indian employers surveyed said they found identity fraud among candidates or employees in 2025, the highest share among the markets studied. Another 52% expect AI to lead to additional hiring. (People Matters)
