SPOTLIGHT: Seasonal Hiring Is Sending Mixed Signals
Indeed’s data looks strong, while the retail forecasts look softer. Experts say the picture is mixed.
Seasonal job postings on Indeed were up about 10% from a year ago as of Sept. 30, and roughly 7% above 2019 levels.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas predicts U.S. retail seasonal hiring could fall 2.5% from last year, to about 450,000 new jobs in the fourth quarter.
The National Retail Federation expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, compared with a range of 265,000 to 365,000 the year before.
The NRF expects holiday sales growth of 4.2%, pushing sales past $1 trillion for the first time.
Some of that growth may come from higher prices rather than more items sold, with consumer prices up 3.7% in September from a year earlier.
Challenger says the $1 trillion figure doesn’t necessarily mean more revenue or profit for retailers.
I don’t expect this to be an explosive seasonal hiring year like we saw in ‘21 and ‘22.”
Read more via Indeed Hiring Lab, CNBC Make It, HR Dive, Retail Dive, WSJ, Reuters
Some are adding thousands of workers. Others are cutting back or staying quiet.
Amazon plans to hire more than 300,000 workers for the holidays, up from 250,000 and the first increase in three years. That count includes full-time and part-time roles, not just seasonal ones.
DHL Group and GXO Logistics each plan to hire about 25% more seasonal workers than last year.
UPS plans to bring on more than 100,000 seasonal workers.
The U.S. Postal Service plans to cut seasonal hiring to about 10,000 people from 14,000 last year.
Spirit Halloween said in June it would hire 52,000 employees, and Michaels is hiring more than 10,000 seasonal team members across the U.S. and Canada.
Dick’s Sporting Goods and Michaels expect fewer seasonal hires than in past years.
Many retailers have said little about their plans. Challenger says only a handful of companies have shared 2026 headcounts so far.
Read more via WSJ, Reuters, CNBC Make It, HR Brew, Michaels, HR Dive
Fewer postings are labeled seasonal at a group of large employers, most of them retailers. More are labeled part-time.
At the end of September last year, 34% of these employers’ postings were labeled seasonal. This year it is about 20%.
Part-time labels rose from 38% to 49% of their postings, while full-time labels held steady at about 20%. Part-time jobs are less likely to end after the holidays. Indeed says some employers may expect demand to hold up into 2027, though some of the shift may be timing.
Challenger says the quiet announcements suggest retailers plan to lean on existing staff and on-demand pools instead of hiring big seasonal waves.
Target says it starts by offering extra hours to current team members, then taps its On Demand team of about 43,000 store workers who pick up shifts. It hires seasonal workers after that, based on local demand.
I think it’s encouraging that we saw a pickup in these part-time jobs among some of these large employers who are mostly retailers.”
Read more via Indeed Hiring Lab, HR Brew, HR Dive, Target, CNBC
Retail still leads seasonal hiring, but its share is shrinking as online orders grow.
In 2019, retail made up about two-thirds of seasonal postings. This year it is a little over 61%.
Loading and stocking jobs grew from 3.5% of seasonal postings in 2019 to about 9%.
Warehouse work is the fastest-growing category among retail, sales, customer service, transportation and food preparation.
The most in-demand non-retail titles are customer service representative, unloader, delivery driver, photographer and stocker.
Photographers may be in demand for event photography and family portraits, Stahle said.
Read more via Indeed Hiring Lab, CNBC Make It, HR Brew, HR Dive
Faster hiring tools and flexible labor let some employers hold off. Job postings, though, are starting earlier.
Logistics companies and retailers are using technology to hire faster, plus gig workers and flexible scheduling, so they can bring on workers as needed and avoid hiring too many or too few.
Paxon, an e-commerce fulfillment provider, used to start staffing up around September. Now it brings on more temporary workers in late October or November, and plans about 7,000 this year, roughly flat with last year.
Many logistics operators that struggled to hire during the pandemic invested heavily in automation, which helps them handle swings in demand.
Across the market, postings started earlier than usual. They began August at a higher level than in recent years, then broke higher again in late September.
Indeed’s advice to employers still hiring is to post early and make the pitch clear, including pay, hours and whether the job can lead to something longer.
Read more via WSJ, WSJ Logistics Report, Indeed Hiring Lab, HR Brew
Gap expects a lot of applications this season. It built a tool to help manage them.
Gap Inc. built an AI career guide called Bridgette that helps candidates find jobs, apply, schedule interviews and get reminders. It runs on technology from Paradox and Workday Recruiting.
Gap expects around 200,000 seasonal applications.
In a pilot that began in June at more than 100 stores and six regional distribution centers, nearly 45,000 people used the tool and it scheduled more than 7,000 interviews.
The tool was built in part to take recruiting paperwork off store managers.
Technology can help manage the repetitive coordination behind hiring, while our people stay focused on the conversations and decisions that build great teams.”
Read more via Retail Dive
More people are looking for seasonal work, which means more applicants and more competition for the best ones.
Desktop searches for seasonal and holiday jobs are up about 28% from last year.
Indeed ties the interest to years of stubborn inflation and a recent spike in energy costs, in a low-hire job market.
16% of job seekers on Indeed already work at least two jobs, many in retail or other service work.
In a recent survey, 72% of job seekers who had worked seasonally cited financial reasons, and 54% cited professional development.
Stahle says a bigger applicant pool doesn’t make hiring easy, and that transparency on pay, scheduling and career advancement will help employers win the best candidates.
The competition is going to be a little more stiff this year. We are seeing that other employers have started earlier.”
Read more via Indeed Hiring Lab, HR Brew, HR Dive, CNBC Make It, Express Employment Professionals-Harris Poll
Employers are using seasonal roles to find long-term hires, and the offers are getting more competitive.
Target says more than half of its seasonal store team members stayed on after the holidays last year.
Michaels says nearly 50% of seasonal in-store positions converted to regular roles after last year’s holidays.
In the Express and Harris Poll survey, 87% of U.S. hiring managers see seasonal roles as a great way to identify future full-time hires.
Amazon says seasonal workers will earn an average of $20 an hour, and full-time employees will start at a minimum of $20 an hour, with average pay near $24.
Starting in 2027, Amazon seasonal employees who work at least 30 hours a week will get the same healthcare benefits as regular full-time employees.
Target’s seasonal starting wage is $15 to $24 an hour, with benefits from day one that include early pay access, backup childcare and virtual healthcare.
Macy’s says pay ranges are included in all of its job postings nationwide.
Read more via Target, Michaels, Express Employment Professionals-Harris Poll, Reuters, CBS News, Macy’s, Inc.
