The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell 0.1% in August to 99.5, the first monthly decline since March, reversing a 0.2% gain in July. Four of the index's ten components fell on the month, with consumer expectations and building permits among the biggest drags. Building permit declines were broad-based across single- and multi-unit categories and nearly all regions.
The LEI's six-month growth rate, which had been improving, turned back to slightly negative at -0.1% between February and August, compared to -0.6% over the prior six-month period.
The Coincident Economic Index, which reflects current conditions, rose 0.1% in August to 114.9, with all four components making positive contributions.
The Lagging Economic Index rose 0.2% to 120.6, up 0.9% over the past six months, triple its growth rate over the prior period.
The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth of 1.9% for 2026 and has revised its 2027 outlook down from 1.9% to 1.8%.
Read more via The Conference Board
The energy shock triggered by U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in February has proven more manageable than initially feared, but the buffers that kept it that way are wearing thin. Oil prices have shot toward $110 a barrel this week after attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut a vital pipeline, Houthi forces seized a Red Sea island and port city, and Gulf negotiations collapsed.
OECD strategic reserves have dropped to their lowest levels in decades; alternate Saudi delivery routes are not currently operating.
The Asian Development Bank projects regional inflation will accelerate to 5.2% this year from 3.0% last year; inflation in Europe, Britain, and the U.S. is likely to hover in the 3.5%-4% range through at least mid-2027.
At some point when all your trading partners are suffering from high prices and food is more expensive and transportation is more expensive, you can't really escape the laws of economic gravity."
Qatar's economy is projected to shrink 8.6% this year; Saudi Arabia's shrank 4.8% in the second quarter.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have cut that country's refining capacity by roughly 30% over the next 18 months; Russia has extended its diesel export ban through the end of this month.
Read more via The New York Times
Diesel hit an all-time high of $6.31 per gallon this week, and economists and supply chain experts say the costs will work their way into virtually everything: grocery prices, delivery fees, home heating, construction, and air travel. The core problem is refining capacity, not just crude supply.
Home heating oil customers in the Northeast could pay as much as 31% more this winter if prices hold at current levels.
Small trucking operators face the most immediate pressure; independent owner-operators can't adjust quickly when costs spike, which could shrink available capacity and push shipping rates even higher.
Roughly 20% of global refining capacity is currently offline due to conflict-related damage; experts say prices would not recover quickly even if fighting stopped today.
Construction, public transit, food distribution, and farming are all heavily exposed, with construction particularly vulnerable because contracted project prices leave little room to pass costs along.
For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view. We simply don't know how to model the endgame."
Read more via CNBC
47% of Americans want labor unions to have more influence, a record high in 25 years of Gallup tracking and roughly double the 23% who want unions to have less, itself a record low. Union approval stands at 71%, tying its recent high and up sharply from a record low of 48% in 2009.
The increase since 2023 is driven entirely by Democrats, 73% of whom now want unions to gain influence, up 12 points and the highest Gallup has recorded for the group.
Independents favor more union influence over less by 26 points; Republicans favor less over more by 30 points, though 52% of Republicans approve of unions overall, only the second time in 25 years a majority has done so.
Despite wanting stronger unions, Americans are less confident they'll get them: 27% expect unions to become stronger, down from a record-high 34% in 2023, while 39% expect them to weaken.
Read more via Gallup
Australia: Job ads rose 0.5% in August, ending 12 consecutive months of declines, with hospitality and tourism and the trades leading gains. Victoria posted the sharpest monthly growth in over four years. Competition for available jobs remains fierce: applications per ad rose again in July and are at peak levels. Demand for AI-related skills accelerated in August, up 3.9% month over month and 66.2% year over year, with agentic AI skills among the fastest-growing, up 185% annually. (Staffing Industry Analysts)
China: China's urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2% through the first eight months of 2026, holding steady year over year and below Beijing's 5.5% annual target. The August rate ticked up slightly to 5.3%, which the National Bureau of Statistics attributed to seasonal factors. A five-year human resources plan released in July sets targets to help 25 million unemployed urban workers find jobs and provide employment assistance to 6.5 million people having difficulty finding work through 2030. (Staffing Industry Analysts)
Italy: Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti warned this week that the cost of servicing Italy's public debt is rising at "an alarming rate" amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with borrowing costs jumping at a bond auction last week. Italy's public debt is projected to peak at nearly 139% of GDP this year, overtaking Greece as the eurozone's most indebted country. (Reuters)
