Job growth "stalled" last month, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, with new jobs coming in well below economists' anticipated gains.
The U.S. economy added 22,000 jobs in August, well below economists' expectations of 75,000 new jobs:
Private sector jobs increased by 38,000, with health care and social assistance seeing gains of 31,000 and 16,000 new jobs respectively.
Federal government jobs declined by 15,000 last month. Since January, federal government jobs have declined by 97,000.
Wholesale trade lost 12,000 jobs, down 32,000 since May.
Manufacturing lost 12,000 jobs in August.
U.S. job growth continued to slow down in August, a sign that the labor market is deteriorating markedly."
Unemployment and labor force participation "changed little":
The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August, up from July's 4.2% rate.
The number of "new entrants" ("unemployed people who are looking for their first job") fell by 199,000 in August, "offsetting an increase in the prior month."
The number of long-term unemployed "changed little" in August but is up 385,000 year-over-year.
The labor force participation rate "changed little" at 62.3%.
Average hourly earnings and average workweek:
Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm workers increased by 10 cents to $36.53.
The average workweek for private nonfarm workers came in at 34.2 hours for the third consecutive month.
The average workweek "edged down to 40.0 hours" for manufacturing employees.
Revisions were made to June and July reports:
June's employment numbers were revised down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000.
July's report was revised up by 6,000, from +73,000 to +79,000.
Read more via Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Wall Street Journal
NOTE: The ADP Employment Report and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobs Report utilize different data, and therefore provide differing reports. ADP's report includes only private sector data.
The U.S. private sector added over 50,000 jobs last month while annual pay increased 4.4%, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report.
The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty. A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions."
Private sector employment "increased by 54,000 jobs in August," according to ADP:
Sectors with job gains included leisure and hospitality (+50,000), construction (+16,000), professional and business services (+15,000) and information (+7,000).
Sectors losing jobs included trade/transportation/utilities (-17,000), education and health services (-12,000) and manufacturing (-7,000).
Job gains were highest in the Northeast region. Medium-sized establishments (50-499 employees) added the most jobs, followed by large establishments with 500 or more employees.
Annual pay increased 4.4% year-over-year:
"Job-stayers" saw year-over-year pay gains of 4.4%, while "job-changers" saw gains of 7.1%.
Read more via ADP
The number of U.S. job seekers is higher than the number of job openings, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Job openings declined beyond what economists expected:
The number of job openings declined to 7.18 million in July, below economists' expectations of 7.37 million.
Job openings are currently "at their lowest level in 10 months."
The number of unemployed Americans (7.2 million) is now higher than the number of job openings, the first time the number of unemployed has exceeded the number of job openings since April 2021.
Job openings declined in health care and social assistance (-181,000), arts & entertainment (-62,000) and mining (-13,000).
Both the "number and rate of hires were unchanged at 5.3 million and 3.3 percent, respectively."
The number of separations remained "unchanged":
Separations numbered 5.3 million, and the rate of separation came in at 3.3%, unchanged from the prior month.
Within separations, the rate of quits (voluntary separations) also remained unchanged.
The number of quits increased substantially in professional and business services (+197,000) and decreased in construction (-80,000) and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-49,000).
Layoffs and discharges remained "unchanged at 1.8 million and 1.1 percent, respectively."
Revisions to June's JOLTS report:
The number of June job openings was "revised down by 80,000 to 7.4 million," while the "number of hires was revised up by 63,000 to 5.3 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 281,000 to 5.3 million."
This is a turning point for the labor market … It’s yet another crack.”
Read more via Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN
The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book showed "little or no net change in overall employment levels" across eleven Federal Reserve districts, while one district showed a "modest decline" in employment.
Employers in seven districts were "hesitant to hire workers because of weaker demand or uncertainty," while firms in two districts noted an "increase in layoffs."
[C]ontacts in multiple Districts reported reducing headcounts through attrition—encouraged, at times, by return-to-office policies and facilitated, at times, by greater automation, including new AI tools."
The Beige Book is published eight times a year by the Federal Reserve and offers insights on “current economic conditions by Federal Reserve district.”
Highlights from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, by district:
Boston: Employment "was down slightly" and wages grew modestly. Most manufacturers "maintained steady headcounts," while "restaurant employment decreased modestly" as a result of a "reduction in the number of establishments." Staffing firms reported "mostly flat" employment and labor demand, with a "modest uptick in hiring in the accounting, finance, and legal professions." Time to fill vacancies increased as a result of firms remaining "hesitant to make major hiring decisions" and "highly selective" when doing so.
New York: Employment was "mostly unchanged" and "wage growth held steady at a modest pace." Some sectors (including "information, construction, and education and health") saw a "decline in headcounts" while "personal services firms as well as wholesalers reported some growth in employment." Across many sectors, "labor supply continued to exceed demand." Workers are "staying put" in roles, resulting in "extremely low" attrition.
Philadelphia: Overall, employment was "unchanged," with manufacturing firms reporting a "modest increase in employment." Most firms reported seeing an "overall increase in job candidates" as a result of an "uptick in layoffs," though "several contacts continued to report a lack of certain skilled workers." Wage increases have steadied.
Cleveland: Employment in the region has been flat in recent weeks, with "decreased demand for labor in response to flattening demand." Firms across different sectors are "reducing costs by not replacing departing staff." Some contacts noted they are "taking advantage of increased labor availability to acquire talent with higher skill sets." Almost 80% of contacts said they are "holding wages steady."
Richmond: Employment levels were "largely unchanged," with "multiple contacts" making headcount adjustments "based on current and expected near-term changes in customer demand." Construction firms report "increased difficulties finding workers due to the available immigrant labor pool." Wage growth continued at a moderate level.
Atlanta: The region's labor market "remained unchanged over the reporting period," with firms still reluctant to hire as a result of continued "economic uncertainty and softening demand conditions." Most firms are planning to "keep headcount flat for the remainder of the year." Wages were "broadly unchanged over the reporting period."
Chicago: Employment increased "slightly" despite "mixed" reports on the current labor market conditions. Across the manufacturing, construction and marketing sectors, contacts reported "having trouble hiring skilled workers." Wages and benefit costs were “up modestly overall.”
St. Louis: Employment levels were unchanged with most employers exercising caution due to economic uncertainty. In the manufacturing, construction and agriculture sectors, contacts reported "abnormally high turnover, which they attribute to the loss of immigrant labor." Wage growth was "moderate," but notably "higher than in previous reports."
Minneapolis: Employment declined "slightly," with firms "choosing not to fill turnover or other open positions given economic uncertainty." Layoffs remain "low", and firms reported "improved labor availability." Wage growth was "modest to moderate and easing overall, according to recent surveys."
Kansas City: Contacts reported declining employment levels in "both services and manufacturing" and "businesses anticipated slightly weaker hiring activity in coming quarters." Wage growth continued "at a modest pace."
Dallas: Employment levels remained "fairly flat over the reporting period," with “a roughly equal share of service firms” reporting "increasing versus decreasing employment." Firms are seeing "improved availability of applicants." Wage growth remained "moderate."
San Francisco: Employment levels "fell slightly in recent weeks" as "employers lowered head counts through layoffs, hiring freezes, and attrition." Some firms have "turned to automation technologies to maintain output levels and reduce costs." Wage growth has been "up somewhat in recent weeks" in “health care, education, and leisure and hospitality.”
Read more via Federal Reserve, Bloomberg
A new survey suggests Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the extent to which "hard work" can lead to "economic gains."
Just a quarter of Americans believe they have a "good chance of improving their standard of living," according to a new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll. That's the lowest recorded level since 1987.
Highlights from the WSJ-NORC poll of over 1,500 U.S. adults:
Over 75% of respondents said they "lack confidence that life for the next generation will be better than their own."
Almost 70% of respondents no longer believe that "if you work hard, you will get ahead."
The percentage of respondents who don't believe that hard work results in economic gains is "the highest level in nearly 15 years of surveys."
Republicans were more optimistic about the future, with just 55% of Republicans holding a "negative view of prospects for themselves and their children," compared to 90% of Democrats.
Respondents expressed more optimism around the state of the current economy, with 44% rating it as "excellent or good, up from 38% a year ago."
Respondents voiced concerns about inflation, with 28% of respondents saying "rising prices were causing them major financial strains."
Less than 25% of respondents voiced confidence in their ability to "buy a home if they wanted to."
Read more via The Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal-NORC poll
Australia: Average advertised salary increased year-over-year by 3.3% in July, according to the latest data published by Seek. July’s average advertised salary growth is the “slowest annual growth since August 2021.” Month-over-month growth was 0.2%, marking the “first time that advertised salary growth has been below 0.3% in two consecutive months since 2021.” (SIA)
Canada: Not including the pandemic period, employment growth for young workers ages 16 to 24 was the “weakest on record in July,” according to Alberta Central economists. Unemployment among young people currently “stands at 15%.” (Bloomberg)
Germany: According to the latest government data, the "number of unemployed people in Germany has topped three million for the first time in a decade." The number of unemployed people increased by 46,000 in August over July, bringing the total to 3.02 million. Experts say the three million figure "represents a symbolic threshold - one that separates strength from weakness." (Reuters)
United Kingdom: UK dads experience "steeper wage cuts" than moms when they step back from full-time work, according to researchers at University College London. For "each additional year of part-time work," men's hourly pay is cut "by about 3.5%" compared to "less than 1% for women." Since the UK "extended the right to request flexible working to more employees" in 2014, "men's work patterns have barely shifted," while women have "increased their use of such arrangements." The new research may provide "an answer for why men aren’t scaling back: a fatherhood penalty." (Bloomberg)
